粮食生产结构演变及节土效应分析--以中东部粮食主产区为例

Analysis of Grain Production Structure Evolution and Soil Saving Effect--Take the Main Grain Producing Areas in Central and Eastern China as an Example

新形势下,我国粮食安全的主要矛盾已经从总量不足转变为结构性矛盾,以包含八个省份的中东部粮食主产区为研究区域,五类粮食作物为决策单元,选用2008-2019年的各粮食作物播种面积、产量、加权平均单产等数据对粮食生产结构演变及演变产生的节土效应进行测算。结果表明:(1)粮食播种面积信息熵经历了缓慢降低、较快速降低和快速增长三个阶段,粮食产量信息熵经历了平稳变动、较快速降低和较快速增长三个阶段,两者整体皆呈现降低态势。(2)2008-2015年为研究区域粮食种植结构调整后的前一段时期,节土效应较为显著,2016-2019年为后一段时期,节土效应减弱,其余研究域内各省份存在节土效应和负节土效应。据此,提出中东部粮食主产区粮食生产结构调整的建议,以期优化其粮食生产布局,提高综合生产能力,缓解耕地资源制约性。

Under the new situation,the main contradiction of food security in China has changed from the total shortage to structural contradiction,to contain eight provinces for the research area,five types of food crops for decision-making unit,choose 2008 of 2019 planting area,yield,weighted average yield data of food production structure evolution and evolution of the soil effect(sown area)to measure.The results show that:(1)the sown area information entropy of grain has experienced three stages:slow reduction,rapid reduction and rapid growth,and the sown area information entropy of grain output has experienced three stages:steady change,rapid reduction and rapid growth,and both show a downward trend.(2)soil saving effect in the previous period(2008-2015)was significant in the whole study area,but decreased in the latter period(2016-2019),and the soil saving effect and negative soil saving effect existed in all provinces in the study area.Therefore,it is put forward that the shortage of grain production in resources and environment,and the need to adjust the structure of grain production in accordance with local conditions to ensure food security.