基于多源降雨数据集成的山洪灾害预警研究

Research on Early Warning of Flash Flood Disaster Based on Multi-Source Rainfall Data Integration

山洪灾害是中国洪涝灾害致人伤亡的主要灾种,具有突发性、难预测性和危害性等特征。针对南方湿润地区,基于集成的多源降雨数据滑动计算不同时段的累计雨量,结合动态雨量预警指标分析方法进行山洪灾害预警分析,以南雄市帽子峰镇和清远市笔架林场小流域为例对该方法进行了应用。结果表明:基于多源降雨数据集成的动态雨量预警指标分析方法相较于研究区山洪灾害实际发生时间分别提前3.0、0.5 h发出预警,有效地延长了山洪灾害的预见期,为预警发布和人员转移赢得更多宝贵时间。

Flash flood is the main disaster that causes casualties in China,and it has the characteristics of abruptness,unpredictability,and harmfulness.In this study,the accumulated rainfall in the humid area of South China in different periods is calculated based on the integrated multi-source rainfall data,and the early warning of flash flood disasters is analyzed according to the dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis method.The method is applied to the small watershed of Maofeng Town in Nanxiong city and Bijia forest farm in Qingyuan city.The results show that compared with the actual time of flash flood disaster in the studied area,the warning is issued 3 h and 0.5 h in advance by the dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis method based on the multi-source rainfall data integration,which effectively prolongs the prediction period of flash flood disasters and gains more time for early warning release and personnel transfer.