Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Great Dunhuang Region

大敦煌地区水资源承载力及其承载状态评价

Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) is an important index for assessing the coordinated development relationship between population and water resources. The quantitative evaluation of WRCC can provide an important basis for water resource regulation and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the statistical data of cities and counties in the Great Dunhuang Region(GDR), and taking counties as the basic units,this study quantitatively analyzed the WRCC and carrying status of the GDR under different water inflow conditions and policy constraints from 2010 to 2017. The study revealed three main trends.(1) From 2010 to 2017, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year, from 343700, 315900 and 291100 people to 458700, 415400 and 375600people in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively.(2) Under policy constraints, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year from 309400 people in 2010 to 412400 people in 2017. Based on future estimates, the WRCC of the GDR are expected to be 326600 people in 2020 and 341200 people in 2030.(3) From 2010 to 2017,the water resources carrying index of the GDR was decreasing, and it decreased from 1.05, 1.14 and 1.24 to 0.80,0.88 and 0.97 in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. The carrying status changed from critical overload to balanced. Although the WRCC and the carrying status of the GDR had significantly improved by 2017, the overall upper limit of the carrying capacity is not high. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources in the GDR.

水资源承载力是衡量区域内人水关系协调发展的重要评判指标。定量评价水资源承载力,可为有效调控水资源、维持经济社会可持续发展提供重要依据。基于大敦煌地区各市县统计数据,以分县为基本单元,定量分析了2010–2017年不同来水条件和不同政策约束下大敦煌地区水资源承载力和承载状态。结果表明:(1)2010–2017年大敦煌地区水资源承载力逐年增加,平水年、枯水年和特枯年条件下的承载力分别从34.37万人、31.59万人和29.11万人增加到45.87万人、41.54万人和37.56万人。(2)不同政策约束下,2010–2017年大敦煌地区水资源承载力逐年增加,从2010年的30.94万人增加到2017年的41.24万人;预估2020年和2030年分别可承载人口32.66万人和34.12万人。(3)2010–2017年大敦煌地区水资源承载指数持续减小,平水年、枯水年和特枯年条件下承载指数分别从1.05、1.14和1.24降到0.80、0.88和0.97,人水关系均从临界超载转变为平衡有余。大敦煌地区水资源承载力显著提升,承载状态显著改善,但整体承载上限并不高,应着力提高水资源利用效率,以维持大敦煌地区水资源的可持续利用。