基于混频DSGE模型的石油价格波动及石油消费偏好动态效应研究

Research on Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Volatility and Oil Consumption Preference Based on Mixed Frequency DSGE Model

本文将石油作为生产原料和消费品分别引入生产和消费过程,构建了包含石油的动态随机一般均衡模型,并基于混频数据对模型参数进行贝叶斯估计,进而考察石油价格冲击和石油消费偏好冲击对中国宏观经济的影响机制。理论分析表明,石油价格上涨推动生产边际成本上升,短期内会引发成本推动型通货膨胀,中期内会导致产出下降,对中国宏观经济具有负向影响。为增强中国宏观经济抵御国际原油市场风险的能力,应当不断增强生产要素间的替代弹性,降低中国经济对石油的依赖度。此外,正向的家庭石油消费需求冲击,不仅对家庭的消费、投资决策产生影响,还通过扩大总需求拉动经济增长。考虑到现阶段石油消费偏好冲击对经济增长仍存在积极效应,在推进中国经济绿色发展的进程中,应妥善处理能源、环境与经济三者间关系。

Oil is introduced into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a product consumed by households and an input used by intermediate firms.With the model estimated by Bayesian method based on mixed-frequency data,this paper explores the detailed transmission mechanism of oil price shocks and oil consumption preference shocks.The theoretical analysis reflects that high oil price raises the marginal cost of production,and thus triggers cost-driven inflation in the short term and leads to a decline in output in the medium term,resulting in a negative impact on China ’s macro-economy.Therefore,to alleviate the negative impact caused by oil price shocks,China ’s oil dependence should be decrease by enhancing the elasticity of substitution among inputs of production.In addition,the positive oil consumption preference shocks not only affect households ’ consumption and investment,but also stimulate the output by expanding aggregate demand.Considering that the oil consumption preference still has a positive on economic growth,the government in China should keep a balance among the energy,environment and the economy when promoting the economic green development.