基于标准差法组合预测模型的区域快递需求量预测研究——以大连市为例

Regional Express Delivery Based on Standard Deviation Combined Forecasting Model Demand Forecasting Research——Taking Dalian city as an example

快递需求量的准确预测是区域快递行业合理布局的重要依据.在明确区域快递需求量衡量指标的前提下,针对其预测方法单一、适用范围局限等问题,提出构建基于灰色GM(1,1)预测模型、一元线性回归分析预测模型和趋势平均法预测模型的标准差法组合预测模型.以大连市为例,选取大连市快递量作为预测指标,预测结果表明,标准差法组合预测模型的预测结果最为准确,其平均相对误差为3.04%.所建立的模型为区域快递需求量预测工作提供参考.

Accurate prediction of express demand is an important basis for reasonable distribution of regional express industry.On the premise of clarifying the concept and measurement index of regional express delivery demand,aiming at the problems of single forecasting method and limited application scope of express delivery volume,a standard deviation combined forecasting model based on grey GM(1,1) model,unitary linear regression analysis prediction model and trend average method prediction model was proposed.Taking Dalian City as an example,the express delivery volume in Dalian City is selected as the prediction index.The prediction results show that the standard deviation method combined prediction model has the highest prediction accuracy,and its average relative error is 3.04%.The model can provide reference for regional express demand forecast.