2012—2020年北京市通州区居民恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势及其差别分解分析

Trends of mortality of malignant tumors in Tongzhou District from 2012 to 2020

目的分析北京市通州区居民恶性肿瘤死亡水平及变化趋势,评价人口老龄化对恶性肿瘤死亡率的影响。方法利用全国人口死亡信息登记管理系统,分析2012—2020年北京市通州区户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡监测数据计算粗死亡率、标准化死亡率。利用Joinpoint回归分析恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势,计算年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC),采用死亡率差别分解法分析不同年份人口结构和其他影响因素变化对恶性肿瘤死亡率的贡献值。结果2012—2020年通州区居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为164.34/10万,标化死亡率为182.55/10万,占全部死亡病例的25.21%。2012—2020年恶性肿瘤粗死亡率(APC=-0.03%,P=0.98)、标化死亡率(APC=2.46%,P=0.11)及构成比(APC=0.23%,P=0.85)变化趋势无统计学意义。0~14岁组、15~44岁组、45~64岁组、≥65岁人群恶性肿瘤死亡率分别为2.29/10万、14.46/10万、154.79/10万、711.16/10万,其中15~44岁组恶性肿瘤死亡率呈下降趋势(APC=-5.63%,P<0.01)。恶性肿瘤死因顺位排在前5位的分别为肺癌(33.14%)、肝癌(11.26%)、结直肠癌(10.40%)、胃癌(5.46%)和食道癌(5.33%)。2020年恶性肿瘤死亡率较2012年死亡率增加12.36/10万,其中人口因素贡献率为193.12%,非人口因素的贡献率为-93.04%。肺癌、结直肠癌人口因素贡献率分别为146.29%、116.75%。结论2012—2020年通州区恶性肿瘤死亡率受人口老龄化影响较大,对老年人群应重点关注肺癌和结直肠癌防控和干预。

Objective To analyze the trend of mortality of malignant tumors in Tongzhou District,aiming to evaluate the impact of population aging on mortality for malignant tumors.Methods Based on the National Diseases Surveillance System,mortality data of malignant tumor were acquired from 2012 to 2020 in Tongzhou District.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of mortality of malignant tumor and calculate annual percent change(APC).Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the change of mortality.Results From 2012 to 2020,the crude mortality of malignant tumor was 164.34/10^(5),and the standardized mortality of malignant tumor was 182.55/10^(5),and malignant tumor deaths accounted for 25.21%of all residents’deaths.There was no significant changing trend in the crude mortality(APC=-0.03%,P=0.98),standardized mortality(APC=2.46%,P=0.11)and constituent ratio(APC=0.23%,P=0.85)of malignant tumors from 2012 to2020.The mortality of malignant tumors in aged 0-14 years,15-44 years,45-64 years and≥65years was 2.29/10^(5),14.46/10^(5),154.79/10^(5) and 711.16/10^(5),respectively.The mortality of malignant tumors in 15~44 years group showed a downward trend(APC=-5.63%,P<0.01).The top 5causes of deaths of malignant tumors were lung cancer(33.14%),liver cancer(11.26%),colorectal cancer(10.40%),gastric cancer(5.46%)and esophageal cancer(5.33%).The mortality of malignant tumors in 2020 increased by 12.36/10^(5) compared with that in 2012;the contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors to this changing trend was 193.12%and-93.04%,respectively.The contribution rates of lung cancer and colorectal cancer were 146.29%and116.75%,respectively.Conclusions From 2012 to 2020,the mortality of malignant tumors was greatly affected by the aging of the population in Tongzhou District.The prevention,control and intervention of lung cancer and colorectal cancer should be emphasized on the elderly.