大豆国际贸易格局演化与中国对策

Evolution of Soybean International Trade Pattern and China’s Countermeasures

文章运用复杂网络方法,对2001-2019年国际大豆贸易加权网络的格局演化和社区结构进行分析。结果表明:①全球大豆贸易网络呈现规模先扩张、后收缩的特点,整体联系较弱,2016年后开始出现集聚发展的趋势;②呈现“两心分离”网络格局,网络中出口核心国家是巴西、美国,进口核心国家主要有中国以及西欧国家,核心“中介”国家是加拿大和西欧国家;③全球大豆贸易网络主要存在3个稳定的社区,社区分布具有明显地理特性,社区内部出口国家主导较多,“中介”国对社区规模具有显著影响,中美两国在社区中的地位变化具有不同特征。建议提高我国大豆自给率,分散大豆进口来源,扩大社区范围,紧抓收购权和定价权,进而构建以中国为中心的国际供给格局。

This paper used the complex network method to analyze the evolution and community structure of the international soybean trade-weighted network from 2001 to 2019. The results showed that: 1) The global soybean trade network showed the characteristics of expansion at first and then contraction. The overall connection was weak,it showed the trend of collectivization after 2016. 2) In the network,the core export countries are Brazil and the United States,the core import countries are China and the western European countries,and the core "intermediary" countries are Canada and the western European countries. 3) There are mainly three stable communities in the global soybean trade network. The distribution of communities has obvious geographical characteristics. The exporting countries within the communities are more dominant. The "intermediary" countries have a significant impact on the size of the community. China and the United States have different characteristics of status change in the community. It is suggested to increase the selfsufficiency rate of soybeans in China,diversify the source of soybean imports,expand the scope of the community,firmly grasp the acquisition and pricing rights,and then build an international supply pattern centered on China.