引汉济渭工程水源区与受水区并发干旱概率增加

Increasing probability of concurrent drought between the water intake and receiving regions of the Hanjiang to Weihe River Water Diversion Project,China

Water diversion projects are an effective measure to mitigate water shortages in water-limited areas.Understanding the risk of such projects increasing concurrent drought between the water intake and receiving regions is essential for sustainable water management.This study calculates concurrent drought probability between the water intake and receiving regions of the Hanjiang to Weihe River Water Diversion Project using Standardized Precipitation Index and Copula functions.Results showed an increasing trend in drought probability across both the water intake and receiving regions from 2.67%and 8.38%to 12.47%and 14.18%,respectively,during 1969-2018.The return period of concurrent drought decreased from 111.11 to 13.05 years,indicating larger risk of simultaneous drought between the two regions.Projections from CMIP6 suggested that under the SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios,concurrent drought probability would increase by 2.40%and 7.72%in 2019-2050 compared to that in 1969-1990,respectively.Although increases in precipitation during 2019-2050 could potentially alleviate drought conditions relative to those during 1991-2018,high precipitation variability adds to the uncertainty about future concurrent drought.These findings provide a basis for better understanding concurrent drought and its impact on water diversion projects in a changing climate,and facilitate the establishment of adaptation countermeasures to ensure sustainable water availability.