大都市边缘区农村居民点时空演变及驱动因素研究:以天津市为例

Analysis of the Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Rural Residential Areas in Metropolitan Fringe:A Case Study of Tianjin.

深入挖掘大都市边缘地区农村居民点时空演变特征及影响因素,对城镇化过程中农村居民点空间结构布局优化以及土地资源的节约集约利用具有重要的实践意义。基于Landsat TM遥感影像,利用ArcGIS软件获取研究区1980、2000和2019年450个村的农村居民点用地信息,采用空间叠置分析、核密度分析、结构方程模型等揭示近40 a农村居民点的时空演变规律及影响因素。研究发现:(1)研究区农村居民点数量由1980年的426个减少到2019年的127个。1980—2000年未变化型村庄355个,2000—2019年逐渐减少型村庄达322个,未变化型81个;(2)农村居民点空间分布呈集聚性特征,但1980—2019年间农村居民点核密度估计值逐渐降低,高密度区域较少,距离中心城区较近区域基本无农村居民点分布;(3)区位经济、农户行为对农村居民点变化具有直接影响效应,家庭禀赋和政府政策通过经济发展间接推动农村居民点的变化。

Excavate thoroughly and fully the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of rural settlements in metropolis fringe is of great practical significance for the spatial optimization of rural settlements,economical promotion and intensive use of land resources during the urbanization process.Based on Landsat TM remote sensing,the land use information of 450 rural settlements in Tianjin in 1980,2000 and 2019 were obtained by using ArcGIS software.The spatial overlap analysis,kernel density analysis and structural equation model were used to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of rural settlements in the past 40 years.The results show that the number of rural settlements decreased from 426 in 1980 to 127 in 2019.There were 355 unchanged villages from 1980 to 2000,while there were 322 decreasing villages and 81 unchanged villages from 2000 to 2019.The spatial distribution of rural settlements showed the characteristics of agglomeration.However,the estimated core density of rural settlements gradually decreased from 1980 to 2019,which showed fewer high-density areas and almost no rural settlements near the central urban area.Regional economy and household behavior have direct impact on the change of rural settlements,while family endowment and government policy indirectly promoted the change of rural settlements through economic development.