滁州市小麦赤霉病与气象因子的灰色关联分析

Gray relation analysis method of meteorological factors impacting wheat scab in Chuzhou

基于滁州市7个县(市、区)2005—2020年小麦赤霉病病穗率资料和小麦生育期内逐日气象资料,采用相关系数法、灰色关联分析法,分析了小麦赤霉病发生流行与气象因子的相关性及影响情况。结果表明,滁州市小麦赤霉病发生程度总体呈增加的趋势;越冬期高温与小麦赤霉病呈显著负相关;拔节期至孕穗期的降雨量、雨日数、相对湿度、日照时数,抽穗扬花期的雨日数、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速,灌浆期的平均气温、降雨量、雨日数、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速与滁州市小麦赤霉病发病程度相关性显著且关联度较高;灌浆期雨日数是赤霉病最为密切的气象因素,其次是拔节期至孕穗期降雨量和灌浆期相对湿度,关联度最小的为灌浆期日照时数。

Based on wheat scab data and daily meteorological data during wheat growth period in seven counties(cities and districts)in Chuzhou City from 2005 to 2020,using the correlation coefficient method and the gray correlation analysis method,the correlation and influence between wheat scab occurrence and meteorological factors were analyzed.The results showed that the incidence of wheat scab in Chuzhou City had been increasing;there was a significant negative correlation between high temperature in overwintering peri⁃od and wheat scab;the rainfall,number of rainy days,relative humidity,hours of sunshine during the wheat jointing to booting peri⁃od,number of rainy days,relative humidity,sunshine hours,mean wind speed during the wheat heading anthesis period,the mean air temperature,rainfall,number of rain days,relative humidity,sunshine hours,mean wind speed during grain filling period were all significantly correlated and highly relevant with the degree of wheat scab in Chuzhou City;the number of rain days in the grain fill⁃ing period was the most closely related meteorological factor for scab,followed by the rainfall from jointing to booting period and the relative humidity in the grain filling period.The sunshine hours in the grain filling period had the least correlation.