“双碳”目标下统筹能源安全与低碳转型的我国能源系统演化趋势与路径研究

Research on the evolution trend and path of China's energy system in coordinating energy security and low-carbon transformation based on the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals

研究未来我国能源系统如何演化,探索“双碳”目标的实现路径具有重要意义。以宏观社会经济和重点用能行业发展分析为基础,以国家关于经济和能源等中长期规划为关键边界条件,综合考虑“安全、经济、环境”的能源发展需求,面向“双碳”目标,创新性地提出了中国能源系统预测优化模型(CESFOM),回答了能源绿色低碳转型若干重大问题,对我国中长期能源消费情况、能源供给情况、“双碳”目标实现路径等重点内容开展了深入研究。结果发现:我国能源活动碳排放预计在2029年前后达峰,峰值为109亿t左右,到2060年降至22亿t左右,届时可通过碳捕集、利用与封存技术(CCUS)和林地碳汇共同作用实现能源活动碳中和;一次能源消费总量预计在2033-2035年达峰,相比碳排放达峰要晚4~6 a,峰值为52亿~54亿t标煤(电热当量法),较2020年有6亿~8亿t标煤增长空间,到2060年逐步降至32亿t标煤左右;煤炭消费量预计在2028年达峰,峰值为45亿t商品煤,2035年前始终保持在40亿t商品煤以上,仍然发挥着能源安全压舱石和稳定器作用,到2060年降至8亿~10亿t,主要用于发电、供热和化工。煤电装机和年利用小时数预计在2040年前分别维持在13.5亿kW和4000 h以上,基础电源功能依然突出;至2060年,煤电主要发挥调峰和应急备用功能,装机预计保留8亿~9亿kW,年利用小时数降至不足1000 h。非化石能源大规模发展和零碳负碳技术是我国实现“双碳”目标的“双引擎”,预计到2035年非化石电源发电量达到6.7万亿kW·h(装机28亿kW),超越煤电成为第一大电源,到2060年将达到16.7万亿kW·h(装机74亿kW),成为绝对主体电源。对于必要留存的化石能源,CCUS将作为重要兜底手段发挥碳中和平衡作用,预计到2060年CCUS固碳能力达到13亿t/a左右。

It is of great significance to study how China's energy system will evolve in the future and explore the path to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.On the basis of a deep analysis on the development of both China's macro-economics and key energy-consuming industries,taking China's medium and long-term economic plan and energy plan as the key boundary conditions,and comprehensively considering the"safety,economy and green"development requirements on energy industries and China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,this paper innovatively proposes the Chinese energy system forecasting and optimization model(CESFOM),answers several major issues in China's energy transformation towards green and low-carbon,and especially studies deeply the situation of China's medium and long-term energy consumption and supply,the paths to better achieve China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and other key contents.The research results are as follows:the carbon emissions of China's energy activity are expected to peak around 2029 with a peak value of about 10.9 billion tons,and it would decrease to about 2.2 billion tons by 2060 and the carbon neutrality of energy activity could be achieved with the joint help of carbon capture,utilization and storage technology(CCUS)and forest carbon sinks;total primary energy consumption is expected to peak in 2033-2035,which will be 4-6 years later than the peak of carbon emissions,peaking at 5.2-5.4 billion tons of standard coal(calculated by electrothermal equivalent method),0.6-0.8 billion tons more than that in 2020.Total primary energy consumption will gradually drop to about 3.2 billion tons of standard coal by 2060;coal consumption is expected to peak in 2028,peaking at 4.5 billion tons of commercial coal,and will remain above 4 billion tons by 2035,still playing the role of energy security ballast stone and stabilizer,and it will fall to 8-10 billion tons by 2060,which will be mainly used for power generation,heating and chemical industry.It is estimated that by 2040,China's coal power installed capacity and annual utilization hours will remain at 1.35 billion kilowatts and more than 4000 hours respectively,still highlighting basic power supply capabilities;coal power will mainly play an peak shaving and emergency standby function by 2060,when the installed capacity and annual utilization hour are expected to remain 800-900 million kilowatts and less than 1000 hours respectively.Non-fossil energy scale development and zero and negative carbon technologies will be the"twin engine"for China to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.It is expected that by 2035,the power generation capacity of non-fossil power sources will reach 6.7 trillion kW·h with installed capacity of 2.8 billion kilowatts,surpassing coal power to become the largest power source,and it will reach 16.7 trillion kW·h with installed capacity of 7.4 billion kilowatts by 2060,becoming the main power supply.For the fossil energy that needs to be retained,CCUS will play an important base role in balancing carbon neutrality,the carbon fixation capacity of which will reach about 1.3 billion tons per year by 2060.