山西省电力热力行业碳达峰路径研究

Study on Carbon Peaking Scheme of Electric Power and Heat Industry in Shanxi

以山西省电力热力行业为研究对象,进行碳达峰路径研究。通过对山西省电力、热力行业二氧化碳排放现状进行测算,对电力行业电力需求、电力装机、发电量进行预测,对热力行业供热需求、热源结构进行预测,进而对电力热力行业的碳达峰路径进行预测。根据规划预测,山西省电力、热力行业二氧化碳排放峰值为3.21~3.48亿t,将于2029年左右达峰。提出了碳达峰的政策建议,通过推进电能替代、煤电清洁高效发展、可再生能源规模化利用、发展储能和碳捕捉技术等推进碳达峰路径的实施。

Taking electric power and heat industry in Shanxi as the research object,the scheme of carbon peaking is studied.Based on a measurement of the current situation of carbon dioxide emissions in the power and heat industry of Shanxi Province,the power demand,power installation and power generation of the power industry are predicted,the heating demand and heat source structure of the heat industry are forecasted,and then the scheme of carbon peaking of electric power and heat industry is also predicted. According to the forecasts,the carbon dioxide emissions peak of Shanxi electric power and heat industry will be about321 ~348 million tons and it will peak around 2029. Policy recommendations for carbon peaking are put forward, and the implementation of carbon peaking scheme is promoted by carrying forward electric energy substitution,clean and efficient development of coal and power,large-scale utilization of renewable energy,energy storage development carbon capture and so on.