水运在国内国际双循环中的作用机理研究

Mechanism of Water Transport in Domestic and International Double Circulation

近年来我国提出构建国内国际双循环的新发展格局,交通运输是生产要素流通的载体,是畅通双循环的重要通道。水运作为一种重要的绿色运输方式,在生态环保理念不断凸显的新发展格局下将如何发挥作用是值得人们关注的问题。文章运用系统动力学对水运在双循环中的作用机理进行研究,利用VENSIM PLE软件,从系统的角度构建水运与国内国际双循环的因果关系模型,分析水运如何通过畅通循环中的堵点、痛点来促进双循环,在此基础上构建水运与经济发展相互影响的系统流图进行仿真分析及政策模拟。结果表明:未来,水运与内外双循环将继续相互促进,共同发展;扩大水运投入政策、绿色环保政策及均衡发展政策均可较为显著地促进内外贸易发展和国内国际双循环。研究结果对畅通内外循环、推进新发展格局建设和实现水运的高质量发展具有重要意义。

The mechanism of water transport in domestic and international double circulation is studied by using method of system dynamics.The causal model reflecting the relevance of domestic and international double circulation to water transport is built from the angle of system by means of software Vensim PLE.How the water transport deals with blocking points and pain spots and helps domestic and international circulation is analyzed.The system flow diagram reflecting the interac⁃tion between water transport and economic development is formulated and simulation is conducted to do system analysis and policy simulation.The research shows that water transport and domestic and international circulation will go on promoting each other and develop together.The policy of enhancing investments in water transport,the policies on green environmental protection and balanced development are powerful driving forces to domestic and international trading.