数字普惠金融对系统性金融风险的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Systemic Financial Risk

基于数字普惠金融与系统性金融风险的非线性关系及影响机制探究,选用中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)2011—2020年的面板数据,从银行、保险、股票、房地产和宏观经济五个维度构建系统性金融风险指标体系,运用CRITIC赋权法合成系统性金融风险指标;采用两步系统GMM法分析数字普惠金融及其分指标对区域系统性金融风险的影响。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融的发展抑制了系统性金融风险,覆盖规模越广、数字化程度越高,抑制作用就越强,且抑制作用在不同地区具有异质性;数字普惠金融对系统性金融风险的影响具有阶段性变化特征,数字普惠金融可作用于资本转移和金融发展,从而间接抑制系统性金融风险。

Based on the nonlinear relationship and influence mechanism between digital financial inclusion and systemic financial risk,this paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)from 2011 to 2020 to construct a systemic financial risk indicator from the five dimensions of banking,insurance,stocks,real estate,and macro economy and compose systemic financial risk indicators by using the CRITIC weighting method.This study adopts the two-step systematic GMM method to analyze the impact of digital financial inclusion and its sub-indicators on regional systemic financial risks.The results show that the development of digital financial inclusion inhibits systemic financial risks.The wider the coverage and the higher the degree of digitalization,the stronger the inhibition effect,and the inhibition effect is heterogeneous in different regions.The impact of digital financial inclusion on systemic financial risks has the characteristics of periodic changes.Digital financial inclusion can act on capital transfer and financial development to indirectly suppress systemic financial risks.