数字普惠金融对消费需求的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Consumer Demand

构建“双循环”新发展格局是基于国内国际形势的重大战略部署,是关系我国经济高质量发展的重要决策。基于2011—2019年省际面板数据建立空间自回归模型,从消费层面探讨数字普惠金融更有利于国内需求还是国际需求的问题,并进一步讨论区域效应和创新水平的中介效应。研究发现:(1)数字普惠金融显著降低了进口率,促进了国内消费需求,且这种促进作用存在空间溢出效应;(2)数字普惠金融对国内消费需求的拉动作用在东、中、西部地区呈现显著差异,会随着数字普惠金融发展水平的降低而减弱;(3)在影响途径方面,数字普惠金融的发展会提高区域创新水平,进而有利于国内消费需求的增长。

China’s establishment of a new development pattern of "dual circulation" is a major strategic deployment based on the domestic and international situation and an important decision related to the high-quality development of China’s economy. Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2011 to2019,this paper constructs a spatial autoregressive model to discuss whether digital financial inclusion is more conducive to domestic demand or international demand from the perspective of consumption,and further explores the regional effect and the mediation effect of the innovation level. The study finds that digital financial inclusion significantly reduces the import rate and promotes domestic consumption.The promotion has a spatial spillover effect. The driving effect of digital financial inclusion on the domestic consumer is significantly different in the eastern,central,and western regions,and weakens with the decline of the development level of digital financial inclusion. In terms of impact channels,the development of digital financial inclusion increases the level of regional innovation,which in turn benefits the growth of domestic consumer demand.