新疆科技创新与产业结构优化升级分析

Analysis of Scientific and Technological Innovation and Industrial Structure Optimization and Upgrading in Xinjiang

产业结构的优化升级是区域经济高质量发展中的核心着力点,科技创新是经济增长过程中产业结构不断优化调整的原动力,二者对国民经济发展起着重要作用。因此,有必要对新疆的科技创新和产业结构优化升级进行分析研究。根据2012—2020年新疆时间序列数据,首先对新疆科技创新发展现状进行概述;其次从合理化和高级化两个角度测度新疆产业结构优化升级程度;再次运用灰色关联法计算新疆科技创新发展中的创新投入要素与产业结构优化升级之间的相关度;最后基于VAR模型分析科技创新和产业结构优化升级的作用关系并对二者进行格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明:新疆科技创新能力相对较弱,需要加大创新投入力度;新疆产业发展进入瓶颈期,亟须突破;新疆科技创新与产业结构优化升级具有较高的关联度并且存在相互作用关系,但作用效果不明显并且不能在显著水平下解释二者是彼此的格兰杰原因。

The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the core of the high-quality development of regional economy,and the scientific and technological innovation is the source of the continuous optimization and adjustment of industrial structure in the process of economic growth,and both of them play an important role in the current national economic development.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze and study xinjiang's scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure optimization and upgrading.According to the time series data of Xinjiang from 2012 to 2020,the present situation of xinjiang's science and technology innovation development is firstly summarized.Secondly,the optimization and upgrading degree of Xinjiang's industrial structure is measured from two perspectives of rationalization and advanced.The grey correlation method is used to calculate the correlation between innovation input factors and industrial structure optimization and upgrading in xinjiang scientific and technological innovation development.Finally,based on VAR model,the relationship between technological innovation and industrial structure optimization and upgrading is analyzed and granger causality test is conducted.The result of research shows that Xinjiang's scientific and technological innovation ability is relatively weak,and it needs to increase innovation investment.Xinjiang's industrial development has entered a bottleneck period,which is in urgent need of breakthrough.Xinjiang's scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure optimization and upgrading have a high degree of correlation and interaction,but the effect is not obvious and can not explain the two are granger cause of each other at the significant level.