2024-2025年新能源汽车积分考核要求对中国新能源乘用车产量支撑作用探究

Research on the Supporting Role of New Energy Vehicle Credit Assessment Requirements for China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Production in 2024-2025

为推动我国新能源汽车产业发展,各级政府围绕生产和推广应用出台了多项政策,其中双积分政策是从供给侧推动新能源汽车发展的重要手段。2022年双积分《修正案》征求意见稿发布,对2024-2025年新能源汽车积分考核要求进行了明确,针对《修正案》对新能源乘用车产量产生的影响建立了双积分政策评估模型,从供给端对我国2024-2025年新能源乘用车产量发展情况进行多情景定量分析。研究发现,基准情景下2024-2025年新能源乘用车产量分别需达到550-680万辆和611-773万辆,传统燃油车油耗降幅、纯电动车型分值等指标将对新能源乘用车产量有较大影响。

In order to promote the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry,governments at all levels have issued a number of policies around production,promotion and application.Among them,the double-point policy is an important means to promote the development of new energy vehicles from the supply side.The 2022 Double Points “Amendment” draft for comments was released,clarified the assessment requirements for new energy vehicle points in 2024-2025,and established a dual point policy evaluation model for the impact of the “Amendment” on the production of new energy passenger vehicles,from the supply side,a multi-scenario quantitative analysis of the development of new energy passenger vehicle production in my country from 2024 to 2025.The study found that under the baseline scenario,the production of new energy passenger vehicles in 2024-2025 will need to reach 5.5-6.8 million and 6.11-7.73 million respectively,and indicators such as the reduction in fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles and the score of pure electric vehicles will affect new energy passenger vehicles.