都市区城市轨道交通制式综合决策模型

Comprehensive decision-making model of urban rail transit systems in metropolitan area

为合理选择城市轨道交通制式,采用层次分析、熵计算及灰色关联度综合决策方法,从概念、特征、适应性等方面分析地铁、轻轨、单轨、有轨电车、磁悬浮、自动导向轨道、市域快轨7种制式的优缺点,将城市都市区分为不同圈层,进行客流走廊识别,依据各圈层的日常客流量和日后诱增客流量,考虑建设成本、运营质量、环境友好、客流量、运行速度、发车频率等技术指标,建立综合决策计算模型,分析各项指标对各轨道交通制式选择的权重影响,利用最小二乘法缩小主观和客观指标的参差权重差,计算各制式综合决策值,从而确定各线路的最佳交通制式。通过对天津都市区轨道交通线路进行比选,轨道交通制式决策值大小依次为地铁、轻轨、市域快轨、有轨电车,选取最适宜的轨道交通制式地铁,研究成果可为城市轨道交通制式选择提供理论依据和应用参考。

In order to establish an optimizing urban rail transit system, the comprehensive decision-making methods of Hierarchy Process Analysis, Entropy Calculation and Gray Correlation degree are applied to analyze the pro and con of the seven urban rail transit modes of subway, light rail, monorail, tram, maglev, automatic guided rail and city express rail.To select the most favorable transit mode, firstly, the urban area is divided into different circles to identify the passenger flow corridor;secondly, the comprehensive decision-making model is established by taking the seven technical indicators into consideration, such as construction cost, operation quality, environmental friendliness, passenger flows, train speed and train departure frequency according to the daily passenger flow of each circle and the induced passenger flow in the future;thirdly, the indicators of the systems are calculated by exploring the influence of each index on the weight of each rail transit system.And the weight difference between subjective and objective indicators is reduced via the least squares method;finally, the method mentioned above is applied to select a rail transit mode for the Tianjin metropolitan area and the results show that the sequence of the decision value of the rail transit system successively is subway, light rail, urban express rail, and tram.Therefore, the most suitable rail transit system for this line is determined as subway.The research results can provide a theoretical basis and application reference for the selection of urban rail transit system in metropolitan areas.