乌兰察布市经济韧性测度与影响因素分析

Measurement of Economic Resilience and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Ulanqab

区域经济韧性作为衡量经济承受冲击并从冲击中快速恢复能力的重要指标,有助于解释外部冲击后的区域经济响应、调整和变化。从抵抗与恢复能力、适应与调整能力、创新与转型能力3个维度构建经济韧性评价指标体系,运用熵值法对2000—2019年乌兰察布市经济韧性进行测度,分析其时序演化特征,并利用灰色关联度分析法对乌兰察布市经济韧性的影响因素进行分析。研究结论表明:2000—2019年乌兰察布市经济韧性整体呈现波动上升趋势,抵抗与恢复能力、适应与调整能力、创新与转型能力均有大幅提升。地区生产总值、居民人均可支配收入、城乡居民储蓄余额、产业结构和外贸依存度是经济韧性的主要影响因素。生态优先绿色发展为导向的高质量发展道路是乌兰察布市乃至西部其他少数民族地区提升经济韧性的最优路径。

Regional economic resilience,as an important index to measure the ability of economy to withstand and recover quickly from shocks,helps to explain the response,adjustment and change of regional economy after external shocks.The evaluation index system of economic resilience has been constructed from three dimensions:resistance and recovery ability,adaptation and adjustment ability,innovation and transformation ability.The economic resilience of Ulanqab City from 2000to 2019 was measured by entropy method,and its time series evolution characteristics were analyzed.The influencing factors of economic resilience of Ulanqab were analyzed by grey relational analysis.The conclusions are as follows:from 2000 to 2019,the economic resilience of Ulanqab showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the ability of resistance and recovery,adaptation and adjustment,innovation and transformation were greatly improved;Regional GDP,per capita disposable income,savings balance of urban and rural residents,industrial structure and dependence on foreign trade are the main influencing factors of economic resilience;High-quality development oriented by ecological green development is the best way to improve economic resilience in Ulanqab and even other western minority areas.