脱贫群体的内生动力与返贫风险——来自广东省相对贫困村的微观证据

Internal Driving Force of Groups Emerging from Poverty and Risk of Return-to-poverty:Micro Evidence from Relatively Poor Villages in Guangdong Province

面对错综复杂的国内外各种风险挑战,中国发展的基础支撑可能仍然在乡村。新时代脱贫攻坚目标任务虽已如期完成,但要全面推进乡村振兴,必须防止规模性返贫现象的发生。然而部分脱贫户由于自身发展意愿及能力不足,即脱贫内生动力不足,同时家庭资产积累较少,存在脆弱性脱贫情况。脱贫群体内生动力的提升,是保证高质量脱贫和守住不发生规模性返贫的关键。为此,文章提出了脱贫内生动力理论,从需求型内生动力与手段型内生动力两方面解释脱贫内生动力影响返贫风险的内在逻辑,并从内生动力视角论述了如何降低中国脱贫家庭的返贫风险。利用来自粤东、粤北地区相对贫困村的实地调查一手数据,对该理论进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)提高脱贫户内生动力水平,能够显著降低其家庭返贫风险,这一效应在“因学致贫”的家庭中更加明显。(2)脱贫内生动力通过提高脱贫家庭的风险抵御能力,从而对返贫风险产生抑制作用。(3)夏普分解结果表明,手段型内生动力对于脱贫户的整体内生动力水平的贡献度要大于需求型内生动力。因此,文章认为应重点关注脱贫户的内生动力,短期内优先发展脱贫家庭的手段型内生动力,长期培育需求型内生动力,持续推进教育帮扶,实施技能培训和降低教育成本,这对于预防脱贫户的返贫风险,夯实我国乡村振兴基础具有重要的意义。

With the current significant global economic contraction and complex international environment,impoverished Chinese households are facing new challenges.Although China has made certain achievements in poverty eradication,it is of great necessity to prevent the occurrence of large-scale return-to-poverty in order to ensure effective poverty alleviation.However,in some regions,households who have escaped from poverty are vulnerable to return-to-poverty due to their own lack of willingness and ability to develop.In other words,such households lack sufficient internal driving force to escape from poverty as well as have low accumulation of the household financial assets needed to withstand volatile and stochastic risk shocks.This paper explores the complex role of internal driving force in preventing return-to-poverty among groups that have escaped from poverty.It is found that:(1)Increasing the level of internal driving force of households who have been lifted out of poverty can significantly reduce the occurrence of return-to-poverty,and this effect is more pronounced among households whose poverty is caused by huge tuition fees.(2)Internal driving force has a dampening effect on the risk of return-to-poverty by increasing the risk resilience of households out of poverty.(3)The results of the Sharpe decomposition show that the contribution of capable internal driving force is greater than that of spiritual internal driving force.Therefore,we argue that the government should focus on the internal driving force of poverty eradication,giving priority to developing capable internal driving force in the short term,and cultivating spiritual internal driving force in the long term.Promoting education assistance,implementing skill training,and reducing education costs have important policy implications for preventing the risk of return-to-poverty among groups out of poverty.The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows:First,it divides the internal driving force of poverty eradication into capable internal driving force and spiritual internal driving force,and constructs an innovative measurement framework of the internal driving force of households out of poverty.Second,targeting the important“out of poverty and back to poverty”group,it provides a feasible theoretical analysis to clarify the internal logic between the internal driving force of poverty alleviation and the risk of return-to-poverty.Third,it measures the level of internal driving force based on primary micro data obtained from the actual research,and verifies for the first time the causal relationship between the internal driving force of poverty eradication and the risk of return-to-poverty from an empirical perspective.