“新雁行模式”理论与“一带一路”产业发展

The “New Flying-Geese Pattern” and Industrial Development in the “Belt and Road” Area

在全球生产网络背景下,传统的“雁行”理论难以合理解释各国产业发展的新特征。为此,文章以新国际分工体系为背景,提出产业发展的“新雁行模式”,在溯源传统“雁行”理论的基础上,以贸易合作和产业转移为切入点,对“新雁行模式”进行理论分析,并对“一带一路”产业发展的“新雁行模式”进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”产业发展具有梯次发展、依序起飞的“雁行”形态,呈现出“大雁群”嵌套“小雁群”和“多级雁行”格局,“首雁效应”并非只来源于单个国家。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家的生产效率提高、产业发展表现出多元化、高级化趋势,中高技术和高技术产业的比较优势增加,部分新兴市场国家实现了“跨越式”发展,在高技术产业上的比较优势主要源于低附加值环节。(3)“一带一路”倡议提出后,区域内比较优势单向转移明显增加,但是对沿线各国产业结构调整和优化升级的促进作用尚未充分显现。因此,需要发展“一带一路”生产网络,培育“多级雁行”格局,增强我国高质量发展的“领头雁”功能,推进区域产业发展的“新雁行模式”。

The traditional “flying-geese” theory cannot reasonably explain the new characteristics of industrial development in various countries.In the global production network,a multi-level system of international specialization has emerged,which is dominated by intra-product specialization,and the coexistence of inter-industry specialization,intra-industry specialization and intra-product specialization.The industrial development in the new international specialization system needs new theoretical explanation.The existing literature proposes the concept of “new flying-geese pattern” from the perspective of industrial development echelon,but lacks a systematic study of its connotation,operation mechanism and characteristics.The industrial development echelon is only the basis of the existence of “flying-geese” relation,which cannot reflect the complete connotation of “flying-geese” relation.This paper puts forward the “new flying-geese pattern” of industrial development in the new international specialization system.On the basis of tracing the traditional “flying-geese” theory,it takes trade cooperation and industrial relocation as the entry point,makes a theoretical analysis of the “new flying-geese pattern”,and verifies this pattern of industrial development in the “Belt and Road” area.The results of empirical analysis are as follows:Firstly,the industrial development in the “Belt and Road” area shows the form of“flying-geese” echelon development and taking off in sequence,with the pattern of “big goose group” nested with “small goose group” as well as “multi-level flying geese”,and the “leading goose” effect does not originate from a single country alone.Secondly,the countries along the “Belt and Road” have improved production efficiency,industrial development shows a trend of diversification and upgrading,and their comparative advantages in the medium and high technology industries have increased.Some emerging markets have achieved “leapfrog” development,while their comparative advantages in high-tech industries mainly come from low value-added links.Thirdly,after the “Belt and Road” Initiative was put forward,there has been a significant increase in one-way shift of comparative advantages in the region,but the promotion effect of industrial restructuring and upgrading in countries along the “Belt and Road” has not been fully manifested.Therefore,it is necessary to develop the “Belt and Road” production network,cultivate the “multi-level flying geese” pattern,enhance the “leading goose” function of China’s high-quality development,and promote the “new flying-geese pattern” of regional industrial development.The contributions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper puts forward the “new flying-geese pattern” of industrial development and analyzes its operation mechanism and main characteristics under the new international specialization system.Secondly,this paper empirically verifies the main characteristics of the“new flying-geese pattern” using the export trade data of the “Belt and Road”,analyzes the impact of the“Belt and Road” Initiative on it,and puts forward some policy suggestions on regional industrial development.