对三十多年来中国出生人口的估计

Estimates of the Number of Births for the Last Thirty Years in China

自上世纪80年代中期到现在的三十多年时间里,中国的出生人口、出生率和总和生育率数据存在巨大争议。官方公布的全国历年出生人口和出生率均不是直接来自人口普查、1%人口抽样调查或年度人口抽样调查,而是在直接调查基础上进行的调整。三十多年过去了,计划生育也即将落幕,但经官方修正后公布的历年出生人口数据是否合适,我们不得而知。2020年第七次全国人口普查漏登率只有0.05%,为我们重新估计以往出生人口提供了基础和依据。利用本次人口普查,结合2000年和2010年人口普查数据,通过用逆存活率方法回推从1986年到2020年各日历年的出生人口。估计结果显示,1991年以前官方公布的数据明显偏低,从1991年到2005年出生率存在明显高估,甚至影响了2000年第五次全国人口普查总人口的准确性;从2005年以后再次出现明显低估。2020年普查以后官方随即对近十年来公布的出生率进行了调整,调整结果是合适的。

Around more than thirty years since the middle of 1980 s,there were huge debate on the underreporting of the number of birth and fertility in China.Almost all the published number of births and crude birth rates were not directely calculated from censuses,1%population surveys,and annual population surveys,but were adjusted by the government based on the censuses and surveys.More than thirty years have passed and family planning policies were going to be ended,but no one knows if the published results since 1986 are approriate or not.The underreporting rate of the 2020 national census was only 0.05%based on the report of National Census Office,which provides the sound basis for us to re-estimates the number of birth of the last thirty years.In this paper,I am using the data from 2020 census combined with the data of 2000 and 2010 censuses to calculate the births backward from 1986 to 2020 by using inverse survival rats.The results show that the published number of births were lower than estimated before 1991 and much higher from 1991 to 2005,and even impacted the correction of the number of national population in 2000 census.Since 2005,the number of births were again to be underreported from 2005 to 2010.By using the data from 2020 census,the National Statistics Bureau made adjustment for the previously published birth rats from 2011 to 2019,and the adjusted results were appropriate.