生育二孩与家庭成本:短期与长期的影响分析

Having Two Children and Family Costs:Short-term and Long-term Impact Analysis

生育二孩后家庭成本的长短期影响日益成为低生育时代育龄群体生育决策的重要因素。使用倾向得分匹配双重差分法(PSM-DID)分析了2019年课题组调研的城镇家庭微观数据,发现生育二孩后家庭成本出现了较大变化,在时间维度、成本结构以及不同阶层之间差异明显。首先,不论是短期还是长期,家庭成本都显著增加。其次,长短期的家庭成本结构不同,消费、医疗支出仅在短期显著增长,教育、居住支出成为家庭成本长期增长的主要原因。最后,生育二孩对家庭成本的影响表现出阶层异质性。教育和住房支出的贫富分化倾向严重,中等收入阶层的教育和住房支出挤占其他支出。生育配套措施和生育成本分摊机制的双重缺位加重了二孩家庭的经济负担。

The long-term and short-term impact of family costs after giving birth to two children has increasingly become the important influencing factor for reproductive decision-making of childbearing age groups in the era of low fertility,and the economic impact on diffe-rent classes of families is different.This paper uses the propensity score matching double diffe-rence method(PSM-DID)to analyze the micro data of urban families investigated by the research group in 2019.It is found that the cost of urban families in China has changed greatly after giving birth to two children,and there are obvious differences in time dimension,cost structure and different classes.Firstly,household costs have increased significantly in both the short and long term.Secondly,the long-term and short-term family cost structures are different.Consumption and medical expenditure only increase significantly in the short term.Education and housing expenditure are the main reasons for the long-term growth of family cost.Finally,the impact of having two children on the structure of family cost shows class heterogeneity,which deepens the class contradiction.The polarization between the rich and the poor in education and housing expenditure is serious,and the education and housing expenditure of the middle-income class crowd out other expenditure.The dual absence of the comprehensive two child policy supporting fertility supporting measure system and the cost sharing mechanism of two children has increased the economic pressure burden of families with two children.