基于VAR模型的湖北省水资源利用与经济增长的动态关系研究

Dynamic Interaction between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Growth in Hubei Province Based on VAR Model

本文基于1999—2019年湖北省生产总值、农业生产总值、工业生产总值和水资源利用的相关数据,通过构建VAR模型,实证分析了湖北省水资源利用与经济增长间的动态依存关系。研究结果表明:湖北省水资源利用与经济增长之间存在协整关系,湖北省农业用水与农业经济、工业用水与工业经济及经济总量与总用水量之间存在单向因果关系。其中工业用水对工业产值的提高有明显的促进作用,且作用逐渐增加,而工业产值增加不会显著影响工业用水量增加。

Based on the relevant data of Hubei Province’s GDP, agricultural GDP, industrial GDP and water resources utilization from 1999 to 2019, this paper constructs a VAR model of water resources utilization and economic growth in Hubei Province. The results show that:There is a co-integration relationship between water resources utilization and economic growth in Hubei Province, and there is a one-way causal relationship between agricultural water use and agricultural economy, industrial water use and industrial economy and total water consumption in Hubei Province.Among them, industrial water use has an obvious effect on promoting the improvement of industrial output value, and the effect gradually increases, while the increase of industrial output value will not significantly affect the increase of industrial water consumption.