离岸制衡与支点选择:美国拜登政府的对印政策

Offshore Balancing and Pivotal State Selection:The Biden Administration’s Policy towards India

拜登政府执政以来,其“印太战略”基本遵循离岸制衡的逻辑,根本目标是制衡所谓的“潜在霸权”中国,选择和鼓动印度作为“支点国家”承担责任以制衡中国的影响力,维持美国在印太地区的主导地位。拜登政府对印政策的主要特点表现为:优化资源配置,以“民主价值”诱导印度护持美国霸权;推卸战略责任,缓和与中国的外交关系及扶持印度制衡中国;维持地区均势,利用印度构建遏制中国的同盟体系。拜登政府对印政策与决策者对印认知和印裔政治集团参与、利用印度构建外部均衡的需求以及延缓美国霸权地位的衰落等因素相关。拜登政府的离岸制衡战略将进一步危害中印关系,加深对南亚国家内政外交的干预,使地区安全环境复杂化,但也在一定程度上扩大了印度在印太地区的影响力。离岸制衡战略下的美印关系存在着战略分歧、两难困境和“集体行动困境”等问题,这是美印双方无法忽视的隐患。

After the Biden Administration took office,the focus of the U.S.Indo-Pacific Strategy has focused on hedging against offshore threats,with the fundamental objective of containing apotentially hegemonic China.Towards this goal,the U.S.has selected India,which it has encouraged to serve as a key supporting state in taking on the responsibility of checking China’s influence and maintaining America’s dominant position in the IndoPacific region.The main characteristics of the Biden Administration’s policy towards India might be characterized as follows:optimize its resource allocation vis-à-vis India;leverage“democratic values”as a basis on which India might support the maintenance of American hegemony;reduce America’s strategic responsibilities,while easing diplomatic ties with China and supporting India to check and balance against China;maintain the regional balance of power,and use India to build an alliance system to contain China.The Biden Administration’s policy towards India is driven by factors such as the perceptions of decision makers towards India and the participation of overseas Indian political interest groups;the practical need to use India to build external-balancing;and the need to delay the decline of American hegemony.The offshore balancing strategy of the Biden Administration will serve to further damage Sino-Indian relations,deepen interference in the domestic affairs of South Asian countries,and complicate the regional security environment.To a certain extent,it will also enhance India’s influence within the Indo-Pacific region.The offshore balancing strategy will result in strategic differences between the U.S.and India,and the two states will face challenges with respect to collective action.The U.S.and India will be forced to address these challenges.