减排固碳目标纳入农业绿色发展政策的协同机制

Synergistic mechanism to incorporate the targets of greenhouse gas emission reduction and carbon sequestration into agricultural green development policies under a carbon-neutral background

碳达峰、碳中和目标对我国农业绿色发展提出了更高要求,实现农业减排固碳目标与农业绿色发展政策协同发展至关重要。本文综合运用文献归纳、政策文本分析等方法,全面分析梳理了农业温室气体排放核算框架、农业减排固碳措施研究进展,刻画了1978年以来我国与农业减排固碳相关的农业绿色发展政策的演进历程,定性评价了农业绿色发展政策与农业减排固碳目标之间的协同关系,并且以黑土区齐齐哈尔市为研究区模拟了不同农业减排固碳与农业绿色发展政策协同情景下的农业减排固碳演变趋势。结果表明:农业减排固碳目标与大部分现行农业绿色发展政策目标是协同推进的,但在水稻种植、畜禽养殖、秸秆利用、种植结构调整等方面也存在无作用甚至负协同的目标;通过政策目标调整,在不同的农业减排固碳技术组合情景下,黑土区能够促进农业温室气体减排与固碳的脱耦,最终实现减排与固碳的双赢。基于此,提出了重视农业减排固碳在促进“双碳”目标中的基础性作用,统筹将农业减排固碳、促进“双碳”目标纳入政策目标,并理顺二者政策目标关系的对策建议,以期为“双碳”目标下的农业绿色发展政策制定提供参考借鉴。

Carbon peak and carbon neutral targets have put forward new objectives for the green development of agriculture in China;therefore,it is very important to achieve synergetic development between agricultural greenhouse gas(GHG)emission reduction,carbon sequestration,and policies for agricultural green development.This study comprehensively analyzed and compared the accounting framework of agricultural GHG emissions and the research progress of the measures of agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration by means of literature summaries and policy analysis and described the evolution process of agricultural green development policies related to agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration since 1978.The synergistic relationship between agricultural green development policies and agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration targets was qualitatively evaluated,and the changing trend of agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration under the coordination of different agricultural green development policies was simulated in a black soil area.The results showed that the targets of GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration in agriculture were coordinated with most of the current targets of agricultural green development policies,but there were some targets that were not included or even negatively coordinated in rice planting,livestock and poultry breeding,straw utilization,and adjustment of planting structure.Through the adjustment of policy objectives,under different combinations of agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration technologies in comparison with historical trends,it can promote the decoupling of agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration in the black soil region,and finally achieve a win-win situation of agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration.Based on these results,several suggestions are proposed,including paying attention to the fundamental role of agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration in the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets,expanding the dimensions of agricultural policies,incorporating agricultural GHG emission reduction and carbon sequestration into the targets of agricultural policies,and coordinating the relationship between the two objectives.It is expected to provide a reference for the policy formulation of agricultural green development against the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.