东江湖湿地公园景观健康与区域旅游经济耦合协调发展研究

Harmonization of Development between Landscape Health and Regional Tourism Economy in Dongjiang Lake Wetland Park

湿地公园的景观健康是湿地公园发展旅游经济的先决条件,区域旅游经济发展是湿地资源得以利用的重要途径。以东江湖湿地公园为例,构建景观健康与区域旅游经济协调发展评价指标体系,基于耦合协调及障碍度模型,对东江湖湿地公园2011—2020年景观健康与区域旅游经济耦合协调关系及障碍指标进行综合分析,利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对未来10年协调发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:(1)2011—2020年,东江湖湿地公园景观健康与区域旅游经济的综合发展指数呈波动上升趋势,系统协调发展状态有所改善,由轻度失调(0.326 2)演变为初级协调(0.623 5);(2)湿地公园的旅游收入、交通通达性、景观多样性及均匀分布程度以及斑块面积大小是制约东江湖湿地公园景观健康与区域旅游经济协调发展的主要因素;(3)依据灰色预测模型预测东江湖湿地公园景观健康与区域旅游经济耦合协调度将由2020年的0.623 5上升至2030年的0.870 0,实现从初级协调到良好协调的跨越。东江湖湿地公园景观健康与区域旅游经济系统相互作用,系统协调性逐渐向好发展,只有两者保持良性互动,才能更快迈向良好协调发展。

The landscape health is a prerequisite for the development of tourism economy in wetland parks, and the development of regional tourism economy is an important way to make use of wetland resources. Taking Dongjiang Lake wetland park as an example, an evaluation indicators system for the harmonization of development between the landscape health and the regional tourism economy was constructed. Based on the coupling harmonization and the hindering extent model, the coupling harmonization relationship between the landscape health and the regional tourism economy as well as hindering indicators of Dongjiang Lake wetland park from 2011 to 2020 were comprehensively analyzed. The GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to predict the trend of harmonized development in the coming 10 years. The study showed that:(1)from 2011 to 2020, the comprehensive development index of landscape health and regional tourism economy of Dongjiang Lake wetland park showed a fluctuating upward change, and the state of harmonized development has improved, evolving from mild disorder(0.326 2) to preliminary harmonization(0.623 5);(2) tourism revenue, accessibility, the diversity,distribution pattern and size of landscapes of the wetland park are the main obstacle factors limiting the harmonized development of the landscape health and tourism economy of the Dongjiang Lake wetland park;(3) the comprehensive development index predicted by the gray prediction model will be increased from 0.623 5 in 2020 to 0.870 0 in 2030,achieving a leap from preliminary harmonization to good harmonization. The landscape health interacts with the regional tourism economic system, displaying gradual improvement of the overall harmonization. Only if the two maintain benign interactions, a better harmonization can be achieved more quickly.