基于ARIMA-TGM组合模型的边坡变形预测

Slope Deformation Prediction Based on ARIMA-TGM Combined Model

通过权系数将ARIMA模型和时变参数GM(1,1)模型结合形成ARIMA-TGM组合模型,针对边坡位移监测数据组成的时间序列,采用ARIMA模型、时变参数GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA-TGM组合模型进行分析预测,通过实验对比3种模型的预测精度,实验结果表明ARIMA-TGM组合模型的预测精度较单一预测模型有所提高,适用于边坡变形的分析预测,研究成果可为边坡的防灾减灾提供一定的技术参考。

In this paper,we combined ARIMA model and the time-varying parameter GM(1,1)model with weight coefficients to form an ARI-MA-TGM combined model.Aiming at the time series composed of the slope displacement monitoring data,we used ARIMA model,the time-varying parameter GM(1,1)model and the ARIMA-TGM combined model to analyze and predict the slope displacement,and compared the prediction accuracy of three models through experiments.The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of ARIMA-TGM combined model is higher than that of single prediction model.It is suitable for the analysis and prediction of slope displacement.The study can provide a certain technical reference for slope disaster prevention and mitigation.