IPCC AR6报告关于气候变化适应措施的解读

Interpretation of the IPCC AR6 on adaptation options of climate change

适应举措对降低人类和生态系统的气候变化风险有着积极的影响。IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第二工作组(WGII)报告全面评估了适应的可行性和有效性,深入评估了适应局限性和不良适应。报告认为,个人、地方、区域和国家各级的适应行动都在增加,但是在做决策时需考虑不良适应的风险。报告从经济、技术、制度、社会、环境和地球物理这6个维度,对23个适应措施的可行性进行了评估;这些适应措施分布在陆地、海洋与生态系统,城乡与基础设施系统,能源系统以及跨部门等四大系统,其中,基于森林的适应、具有恢复力的电力系统、能源可靠性等适应措施具有高信度的高可行性。适应措施的可行性和有效性会随着气候变暖的增加而降低,需要采用多种措施来降低未来气候变化风险。

Adaptation initiatives have positive impacts on reducing climate change risks to people and ecosystems.The Working Group II(WGII)contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)provides a comprehensive assessment of the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation,and an in-depth assessment of adaptation limits and maladaptation.Adaptation actions are increasing at the individual,local,regional,and national levels,but the risks of maladaptation should be considered when making decisions.Six feasibility dimensions(economic,technological,institutional,social,environmental,and geophysical)are used to evaluate the potential feasibility of 23 adaptation options,which are distributed in land&ocean and ecosystems,urban&rural and infrastructure systems,energy systems,and cross-sectoral.Among those adaptation options,the forest-based adaptation,the resilient power systems,and the energy reliability have high confidence and high feasibility.The feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation options will decrease with climate warming,and multiple options are needed to reduce climate change risks in the future.