项目组合脆性风险的网络结构熵测度研究

Network Structure Entropy Measurement for Project Portfolio Brittleness risk

为了解决项目间的交互效应在数量上和属性上存在的异质性问题,文中提出了一种基于改进的网络结构熵的项目组合脆性风险测度方法。通过识别项目间的脆性联系状态计算脆性联系概率;根据脆性联系概率确定项目节点的重要性排序;根据节点重要性排序计算网络结构熵。基于实际算例,实现对项目组合脆性风险的测度,并对比图理论的系统分层方法,验证文中算得的项目节点重要性排序及脆性关联路径的可靠性。文中所提出的方法能够有效识别项目组合中对脆性风险有重要影响的关键项目,为有效实施脆性风险管理提供科学依据。

In order to solve the problem that heterogeneity in quantity and attribute exists in the interaction effects between projects, the paper presents a project portfolio brittleness risk measurement method based on improved network structure entropy.By identifying the brittle connection state between projects, the brittle connection probability is calculated, on the basis of which the importance ranking of project nodes is determined, and finally, according to the ranking, the network structure entropy is calculated.The measurement of the project portfolio brittleness risk is realized in a practical example.A comparison is made between the systematic hierarchical method of the graph theory and the method proposed in this paper, and the reliability of the importance ranking of the project nodes and the brittle correlation path calculated by this method is verified.It is concluded that the method can effectively identify the key projects that have an important impact on brittleness risk in the project portfolio, which provides a scientific basis for the effective implementation of brittleness risk management.