财政能力、公共服务供给与流动人口居留意愿

Fiscal capacity, public service supply, and floating population’s settlement intention

流动人口的安居乐业既是衡量地方政府财政能力的重要标尺,也是检验城镇化成果的主要方式。文章从财政制度和财政资源双重视角出发,构建了政府财政能力影响流动人口居留意愿的分析框架,基于2014—2018年国家卫健委流动人口动态监测数据(CMDS)和国家统计局数据,实证检验了财政能力与公共服务供给对流动人口居留意愿的影响效应。研究结果表明:①样本期内,政府财政能力增强与公共服务供给增加均有助于提升流动人口居留意愿,且在公共服务影响居留意愿的路径中,财政能力表现出增强型调节作用。②分区域检验发现,东部地区流动人口对公共服务的关注度更高,但财政能力对公共服务供给的调节效应较弱,需求侧与供给侧不匹配反映出财政职能履行存在短缺,中部地区财政能力对公共服务供给的调节效应最强。③财政能力方面,财政汲取能力提升会强化公共服务供给对流动人口居留意愿的正向影响,财政自主权、财政配置能力、财政透明度均产生干扰型调节作用。④公共服务方面,政府财政能力增强主要体现在硬公共服务增加上,并对流动人口产生正向溢出,而针对软公共服务的户籍限制会削弱居留意愿;门槛模型进一步检验发现,人均GDP差异的地区之间存在异质性财政激励以及由此引发的政府策略行为,当地区人均GDP跨越门槛值后,政府财政能力对软公共服务的调节作用由促进转为抑制。研究认为,应尽快改革公共财政制度,矫正不当的财政资源配置方式,增加地方公共服务供给,切实推进以人为核心的城镇化进程。

The floating population’s livelihood is an important indicator for the measurement of local governments’governance ability and is also an important way to test the results of urbanization.From the perspectives of fiscal system and fiscal resource,we constructed a theoretical analysis framework of the government’s fiscal capacity affecting the floating population’s settlement intention.Based on the dynamic monitoring data of China’s National Health Commission and the data of its National Bureau of Statistics during 2014−2018,this article empirically analyzed the effects of local government’s fiscal capacity on the floating population’s settlement intention.The results showed that:①During the sample period,fiscal capacity and public service supply had significant positive effects on the floating population’s settlement intention,and fiscal capacity exhibited enhanced adjustment effects in the influence path of public service.②Region heterogeneity analysis found that the floating population in the eastern region paid more attention to public service,but the adjustment effect of fiscal ability on public service supply was lower,and the mismatch between the demand side and supply side reflected the shortcomings of the fiscal functions.However,the adjustment effect of fiscal ability on public service supply in the central region was the highest.③In terms of the local government’s fiscal capacity,fiscal skill capacity improvement enhanced the public service supply levels to promote the settlement intention,while fiscal decentralization,fiscal configuration capacity,and fiscal transparency exhibited interference adjustment effects.④In terms of the public service,with the improvement of the government’s fiscal capacity,the positive impact of the hard public service supply on the settlement intention was strengthened,while the household registration restrictions on soft public service weakened the settlement intention.This study then constructed threshold regression models and found that there existed heterogeneous fiscal incentives and government strategic behaviors because of the per capita GDP differences.As the regional per capita GDP exceeded the threshold point,the adjustment effect of fiscal capacity on soft public service was transformed from enhancement to inhibition.Therefore,we should reform the public fiscal system,correct improper fiscal resource allocation patterns,increase local public service supply,and strive to promote the process of urbanization with the people as the key factor.