中国北方十二省份耕地变化与粮食增产时空耦合关系研究

S tudy of Spatial-temporal Coupling Relationship between Cultivated Land Change and Grain Output Increase in 12 Provinces of Northern China

采用土地利用遥感监测数据和统计调查数据,定量分析2000—2020年中国北方十二省份耕地变化与粮食增产的时空耦合关系。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年中国北方十二省份耕地面积净增加207.18万hm^(2),主要集中在新疆、黑龙江及内蒙古东部,84.67%的新增耕地来源于草地、林地和未利用地。(2)中国北方十二省份耕地面积增加与粮食增产具有较强的时空关联特征,二者显著高值、显著低值均呈现较强的区域空间粘性。北方耕地面积增加的地级市占比由42.10%下降至39.13%,粮食减产的地级市占比由18.42%上升至46.96%,北方十二省份地级市层面存在粮食安全保障能力下降的风险。(3)耕地面积、化肥施用和农业机械总动力是推动北方十二省份粮食增产的主要影响因素,其中,耕地面积增加是粮食增产的根本驱动因素。

This article analyzed spatial-temporal pattern of cultivated land change and coupling relationship between it and grain output increase in 12 provinces of Northern China during 2000—2020 quantitatively using land use remote sensing monitoring data and statistical data.The findings are obtained as follows:(1)The net increase of newly cultivated land in 12 provinces of Northern China was about 207.18×104 hm 2 during 2000—2020,which concentrated in Xinjiang,Heilongjiang Province and the east of Inner Mongolia.84.67%of the sources of newly cultivated land were grassland and unused land.(2)The cultivated land area and grain output had a powerful effect of the spatial agglomeration with the feature of polarization which showed that H-H area and L-L area of both cultivated land area and grain output in 12 provinces of Northern China tend to aggregate.The proportion of the number of cities in Northern China with cultivated land enlargement decreased from 42.10%to 39.13%.The proportion of the number of cities in Northern China with grain output reduction increased from 18.42%to 46.93%,indicating that 12 provinces of Northern China are at risk of ensuring food security.(3)The cultivated land area,fertilizer application and total power of agricultural machinery were the main influencing factors for grain output increase in 12 provinces of Northern China,and cultivated land enlargement was the fundamental driving factor for grain output increase.