“一带一路”倡议对中亚-西亚经济走廊福利的影响

The impact of the“the Belt and Road”initiative on the welfare of the Central Asia West Asia Economic Corridor

自习近平主席在2013年9月10日首次提出“一带一路”倡议以来,为“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的沿线国家的经济发展和居民福利的提升提供了机遇。而已有的论文研究多集中在“一带一路”倡议对经济走廊沿线国家经济促进的影响,对于对沿线国家居民福利促进的实证研究较少。所以有必要通过实证分析证明“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家居民福利确实有实际的提升作用。本文以2000年到2020年中亚-西亚经济走廊沿线国家和中国的人类发展指数以及对中国与中亚-西亚经济走廊沿线国家的进、出口额数据进行面板回归分析、单位根检验,并对中亚-西亚经济走廊的25个国家的面板数据进行格兰杰因果关系检验,得出研究结果表明:中国对中亚-西亚经济走廊地区的进口和出口都有助于沿线国家经济水平的发展,并且“一带一路”倡议显著地强化了沿线国家和地区民生与福利,而且随着时间的推移,这种作用会越发明显。并且给出了相应的对策和建议,为政府在中亚-西亚经济走廊的贸易和投资提供相应参考。

Since President Xi Jinping first proposed the Belt and Road Initiative on September 10,2013,the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative has provided opportunities for economic development and the improvement of people's welfare in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.However,some research papers mostly focus on the impact of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on the economic promotion of countries along the economic corridor,and there are few empirical studies on the promotion of residents'welfare in countries along the economic corridor.Therefore,it is necessary to prove through empirical analysis that the“Belt and Road”Initiative has a practical effect on improving the welfare of residents in countries along the route.In this paper,from 2000 to 2020,central Asia-Asia economic countries and China's human development index and along the corridor in China and central Asia-Asia economic corridor along the country's import and export data panel regression analysis,unit root test,and 25 countries of central Asia economic corridor of panel data for granger causality test,The research results show that China's import and export to the region of central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor are conducive to the economic development of the countries along the belt and Road Initiative has significantly strengthened this promotion effect,and with the passage of time,this effect will become more and more obvious.The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given to provide reference for the government's trade and investment in central Asia-West Asia economic Corridor.