考虑误差不确定的航空制导弹药使用消耗预测方法

Research on Prediction Method of Aviation Guided Ammunition Consumption Based on Error Uncertainty

针对航空制导弹药的使用消耗预测问题,分别建立了航空制导弹药使用消耗点预测和区间预测模型。根据航空制导弹药使用消耗数据小样本、非线性和随机性强等特点,采用支持向量回归模型来对航空制导弹药使用消耗数据进行点预测,并通过粒子群优化算法寻找最优参数;结合点预测误差数据,通过核密度估计法开展误差不确定性分析,确定误差概率密度曲线,并在核密度估计的基础上采用最高密度域确定给定置信度下的最佳置信区间。结果表明,该方法对于航空制导弹药使用消耗数据而言能提供更为精确的预测结果和不确定性置信区间,为航空制导弹药的后续使用安排提供参考依据。

In view of the consumption prediction of aviation guided ammunition,consumption point prediction and interval prediction models are established respectively.According to the characteristics of small sample,nonlinearity and strong randomness,the support vector regression model is adopted to predict the consumption data,and the optimal parameters are found by particle swarm optimization algorithm.Combining with the point prediction error data,the error uncertainty analysis is conducted by kernel density estimation to determine the error probability density curve,and determine the best confidence interval for a given confidence using highest-density regions based on kernel density estimation.The results show that the proposed method can provide more accurate prediction results and uncertainty change interval for the use consumption data,and provide a reference for the subsequent use arrangement of aviation guided ammunition.