国内外技术预见发展趋势分析与启示

The Development Trend Analysis and Enlightenment of Technology Foresight at Home and Abroad

技术预见作为一种面向未来技术发展趋势的技术预判活动和科技管理的政策工具,受到许多国家和国际组织的重视。文章分析了近年来世界主要国家技术预见研究发展趋势,指出其呈现出越来越受到重视、预见方法多元化综合化和智能化、关注领域更趋广泛等趋势。结合我国技术预见研究现状,提出新时期我国开展技术预见研究需要加快推动研究实践机制持续化和常态化、技术预见方法标准化和智能化、研究平台数字化和动态化。

As a kind of technology forecasting activity and policy tool of science and technology management oriented to the future technology development trend,technology forecast has been paid attention by many countries and international organizations.The article analyzes the development trend of technology foresight research in major countries in recent years,and points out that it receives more and more attention,diversification and intelligence of foresight methods,and more extensive areas of attention.Combined with the current situation of technology foresight research in China,it is proposed that the technology foresight research in China in the new era should accelerate the sustainability and normalization of the research and practice mechanism,the standardization and intelligence of technology foresight methods,and the digitalization and dynamics of the research platform.