“双碳”背景下长三角地区碳排放情景模拟研究

Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta under the Background of “Dual Carbon”

长三角地区是中国经济发展的引擎之一,碳排放量位居中国前列,合理模拟长三角地区碳排放量,有助于中国碳减排目标的实现。基于改进的IPAT模型,模拟了2015—2060年长三角地区碳排放量,结果表明:基准情景下,上海、江苏、浙江和长三角地区的碳排放分别在2020年、2025年、2030年和2025年达到峰值,碳排放量分别为166.430百万吨、1 034.391百万吨、457.954百万吨和1 650.570百万吨;低碳情景下,碳排放均在2020年达到峰值;高碳情景下,仅上海在2030年达到峰值,江苏、浙江和长三角地区碳排放均无法在2030年达到峰值。长三角地区作为优化开发区,应以基准情景作为发展的下限,以低碳情景作为发展的上限,确保社会经济平稳健康可持续发展。同时,根据长三角地区各省市现状,提出了低碳发展策略,以期为长三角地区低碳发展,顺利实现碳中和,提供决策参考。

Yangtze River Delta is one of the engines of China’s economic development,and its carbon emissions are at the forefront of China.Reasonably simulating the carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta will contribute to the realization of China’s carbon reduction target.This study simulated carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta during 2015-2060based on the improved IPAT model.The results show that:under the baseline scenario,carbon emissions in Shanghai City,Jiangsu Province,Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta will peak in 2020,2025,2030 and 2025,respectively,and carbon emissions will be 166.430 million tons,1 034.391 million tons,457.954 million tons and 1 650.570 million tons,respectively.The carbon emission peak will be reached in 2020 under the low-carbon scenario.The carbon emission peak will not be reached in 2030 except Shanghai under the high-carbon scenario.As an optimized development zone,Yangtze River Delta should use the baseline scenario as the lower limit of development and the low-carbon scenario as the upper limit of development to ensure stable,healthy,and sustainable development of the social economy.Meanwhile,according to the current situation of the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta,a low-carbon development strategy was proposed to provide a reference for decision-making for the low-carbon development and the achievement of carbon neutrality.