东北三省碳排放时空演变多尺度分析——基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据

Multiscale Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Carbon Emissions in Northeast China Based on DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data

动态分析碳排放的演变趋势,对低碳经济的发展具有重要的科学依据和应用价值。基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据,构建东北三省的碳排放模型,从栅格级、市级及县级模拟分析1994—2013年碳排放的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)1994—2013年,东北三省CO排放量与夜间灯光DN总值间的相关系数均较高,平均相对误差均较小,估算模型有效。(2)碳排放总量逐年增长,形成以中心城市为核心,逐渐呈放射状向外扩张的态势;碳排放量较高的城市主要分布在盘锦、沈阳、辽阳和大连;高碳县域主要分布于盘锦、沈阳和大连的市中区。(3)碳排放具有显著的全局空间正相关,形成了以辽宁省的高碳集聚区和以黑龙江省的低碳集聚区为主的城市集聚态势;县域的高碳集聚区较稳定于辽宁省的6个县域,低碳集聚区主要在黑龙江省西北部和中部以及吉林省东部波动分布。

Dynamic analysis of the evolution trend of carbon emissions has important scientific basis and application value for the development of low-carbon economy.The paper constructs the carbon emissions models of each province which based on the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data,and analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions from 1994 to 2013 at grid level,municipal level and county level.The results are as follows:(1) There are high correlation coefficients and small average relative errors between COemissions and DN value in northeast China from 1994 to 2013,which indicates the estimation models are effective.(2) The total carbon emissions increased year by year,forming a situation that the central city is the core and gradually expanding radially outward.These cities,Panjin,Shenyang,Liaoyang and Dalian,play a crucial role in high carbon emissions;High carbon counties are principally scattered among central district of Panjin,Shenyang and Dalian.(3) Carbon emissions have a remarkable global spatial positive pertinence,forming an urban agglomeration situation dominated by high carbon concentration area in Liaoning and low carbon gathering area in Heilongjiang;The high carbon congregation area at county level was relatively stable in six counties of Liaoning Province,while the low carbon agglomeration area fluctuated mainly in the northwest and central part of Heilongjiang Province and the east part of Jilin Province.