有效应对外部变化继续促进经济恢复——2022年秋季中国宏观经济形势分析

Respond to External Changes Effectively to Promote Continuous Economic Recovery:Analysis of China’s Economic Situation in the Autumn of 2022

当前,世界经济增长预期下挫,全球通胀居高不下。国际格局持续演变,内顾倾向推动产业链供应链调整分化。美联储快节奏、大幅度收紧货币政策,美元汇率走强,多数非美货币大幅贬值,国际经济金融风险加剧。随着国务院33项稳经济措施和19项接续政策出台实施,当前中国经济整体呈持续恢复状态,主要经济指标明显好于2022年第二季度。然而,“三重压力”仍然存在,尤其是预期转弱的局面尚未得到根本扭转,导致经济内生增长动能仍然不足,经济恢复势头不够稳定、不够强劲,实际经济增速仍显著低于潜在增速水平,产出缺口较大。当前需要重点关注以下问题:私人部门消费投资疲弱,内需不足制约经济增长;劳动力市场修复迟缓,就业扩容提质难度较大;全球产业链供应链持续调整,薄弱环节亟须巩固加强;房地产市场延续低迷,持续拖累经济大盘;地方政府财政压力加大,中小金融机构风险暴露;人民币兑美元汇率出现新一轮“急跌”,美元“高利率+强汇率”或引发国际金融风险,对中国金融稳定形成冲击。面对外需收缩幅度可能进一步增大的局面,要及时做好政策接续,保持足够的政策力度,进一步优化疫情防控措施,释放市场主体活力,促进经济运行在合理区间,具体应从如下方面着手:稳定政策预期,着力扩大国内有效投资消费需求;激发实体经济活力,稳定重点群体就业;增强产业链供应链韧性,提高现代化水平和国际竞争力;防范化解房地产市场风险,促进房地产市场恢复正常运行;主动应对地方财政压力,深化央地财税体制改革;增强宏观政策主动性和灵活性,有效应对外部环境变化和政策冲击。

Currently,the world economic growth is expected to fall,and the global inflation remains in the high position.The world pattern continues to evolve,and the inward-looking tendency promotes the adjustment and differentiation of the industrial chain and supply chain.The US Federal Reserve has tightened its monetary policy at a fast pace and substantially,the US dollar exchange rate has strengthened,most non-US currencies have depreciated sharply,and the international economic and financial risks have intensified.With the introduction and implementation of 33 economic stabilization measures and 19 successive policies of the State Council,overall,China’s economy continues to recover,and major economic indicators are significantly better than those in the second quarter.However,the"triple pressure"still exists,especially the weakening expected situation has not been fundamentally reversed,resulting in the lack of endogenous economic growth momentum,the economic recovery momentum is not stable and strong enough,and the economic growth is still significantly lower than the potential growth rate with a large output gap.At present,we need to focus on the following issues:first,weak consumption and investment in the private sector,and insufficient domestic demand restricts economic growth;second,the labor market is slow to repair,and it is difficult to expand and improve employment;third,the global industrial chain and supply chain continue to adjust,and the weak links need to be consolidated and strengthened urgently;fourth,the real estate market continues to slump,dragging down the macroeconomic performance;fifth,the financial pressure of local governments increases,and small and medium-sized financial institutions are exposed to risks;sixth,there is a new round of"slump"in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar,and the"high interest rate+strong exchange rate"of the US dollar may lead to international financial risks,which will have an impact on China’s financial stability.In the face of a situation where the contraction of external demand may further increase,it is necessary to implement policy continuity in a timely manner,maintain sufficient policy strength,further optimize epidemic prevention and control measures,release the vitality of market players,and promote economic operation within a reasonable range:first,stabilize policy expectations and focus on expanding domestic effective investment and consumption demand;second,stimulate the vitality of the real economy and stabilize the employment of key groups;third,strengthen the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain,improve the level of modernization and international competitiveness;fourth,prevent and defuse real estate market risks,and promote the normal operation of the real estate market;fifth,take the initiative to respond to local financial pressures and deepen the reform of the central and local fiscal and taxation systems;sixth,strengthen the initiative and flexibility of macro policies to effectively respond to changes in the external environment and policy shocks.