区域型农业产业政策的生态环境效应评估——基于国家现代农业示范区政策的准自然试验

Evaluation of Ecological Environmental Effects of Regional Agricultural Industrial Policies: Quasi Natural Experiment based on National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zone Policy

以国家现代农业示范区为研究对象,利用中国2005—2018年面板数据,通过倍差法剖析了区域型农业产业政策的生态环境效应。结果表明,国家现代农业示范区政策能够显著提升地区绿色创新水平,但影响效应会随着政策的推进而降低;同时,该政策能够影响区域污染物排放水平,其影响效应会随着政策的推进而显著增强。由于政策对象为农业产业,因而对气候条件的影响有限。要充分发挥国家现代农业示范区的引领、示范效应,推动绿色创新水平的提升,降低区域污染物排放水平。

Taking the National Modern Agriculture Demonstration Zone as the research object,using the panel data in China from 2005 to 2018, this paper analyzes the ecological environment effects of regional agricultural industrial policies through the double difference method. The results show that the National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zone policy can significantly improve the level of green innovation in the region, but the impact will be reduced with the promotion of the policy. At the same time, the policy can affect the regional pollutant emission level, and its impact effect will enhance significantly with the promotion of the policy. As the policy object is agricultural industry, the impact on climate conditions is limited. We should give play to the leading and exemplary effects of National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zone, promote the improvement of green innovation and reduce regional pollutant emissions.