政策试验的两种逻辑与组织模式

Two Logics and Organizational Modes of Policy Experimentation

政策试验是在不确定性情境下改进政策制定的一种治理安排,它在小范围内测试新方案的有效性,将新的信息、证据和数据用于决策,在持续的试验学习中,促进成功经验的推广和扩散。本文从政策不确定性的视角,区分了试验学习的两种逻辑,即演绎学习与进化学习,解析两者的适用情境及组织模式,进而选择杭州市两项政策试验进行实证分析,检验了议题属性与试验模式的匹配性。改进政策试验需要根据议题的不确定性状况,选择合适的学习机制与组织模式。

Policy experimentation is a kind of governance arrangement to improve policy formulation under uncertainty environment.It tests the effectiveness of pre-designed solutions in a small range,applies new information,evidence and data to decision-making,and promotes the replication and diffusion of successful experiences in a continuous process of experimental learning.From the perspective of policy uncertainty,this paper distinguishes two logics of experimental learning,namely deductive learning and evolutionary learning,and analyzes their applicable situations and organizational modes.Further,two policy experiments in Hangzhou are selected for empirical analysis to test the matching between issue attributions and experimental modes.To improve the effectiveness of experimental learning,we need to choose the appropriate learning mechanism and organization mode according to the uncertainty of policy issues.