菽玉真的不可兼得吗:带状复合种植对玉米大豆生产的影响研究——基于局部均衡模型的模拟分析

Can Soybean and Corn Food Security Really not Be Achieved at the Same Time:A Study on the Effects of Maize-soybean Strip Intercropping Systems on Maize and Soybean Production:Simulation Analysis Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model

确保大豆一定水平自给是我国新时期全面保障粮食安全的战略需要,是防范化解极端事件风险的重要举措。玉米大豆带状复合种植通过带状套作间作提升大豆产量,并已在试验研究和区域性推广中取得较好成效,但在全国范围内推广的效果与影响却缺乏整体性时序性分析。本文在分析技术效果及其挑战的基础上,运用局部均衡模型,在农业各产业关联及供求平衡的构架下,模拟预测带状复合种植后玉米大豆可能的产量、消费量和自给率。结果表明,到2035年大豆产量将在现有基础上提高58%~68%,自给率提高6~8个百分点,但在这过程中将面临适宜品种缺乏、除草困难、机械化难度大、生产者技能弱、经济可行性不强等诸多困境。未来须在品种培育、农机、生产者技能等方面更多投入。

Ensuring a certain level of self-sufficiency in soybeans is a strategic need for our country to comprehensively ensure food security and establish a“whole foods concept”in the new era and new stage.The Maize-soybean strip intercropping improves soybean yield,and has achieved good results in experimental research.However,there is a lack of overall time series analysis on the effect and nationwide impact.On the basis of analyzing the technical effect and its challenges,this study uses the partial equilibrium model to simulate and predict possible yield,consumption and self-sufficiency rate of maize and soybean after strip intercropping under the framework of the relationship between various agricultural industries and the balance of supply and demand.The results show that by 2035,soybean yield will increase by 50%,and the self-sufficiency rate will increase by 5-6 percentage points;however,there will be many challenges such as a lack of suitable seeds,difficulty in weeding,difficulty in mechanization,weak producer skills,and economic feasibility.In the future,more investment must be made in seed cultivation,agricultural machinery,and producer skills.