生鲜农产品有效供给创新驱动系统构建及仿真优化研究

Construction and Simulation Optimization of Innovation Driving System for Effective Supply of Fresh Agricultural Products

在梳理生鲜农产品供给创新构成要素和关系的基础上,构建生鲜农产品有效供给创新驱动概念模型及系统动力学模型,以江苏为例进行传统优势生鲜农产品强化型、特色品牌生鲜农产品培育型、新兴高端生鲜农产品引导型模拟优化仿真。结果表明,强化传统大宗生鲜农产品实现兜底保障,培育特色品牌产品提升购买能力,而根据需求预测供给新兴高端生鲜农产品才能满足现有需求、创造引领新需求,同时实现供给数量合理、结构有力、消费者满意、供给者获利的有效供给最终目的。

On the basis of sorting out the elements and relationships of fresh agricultural product supply innovation,the innovation driving conceptual model and system dynamics model of effective supply of fresh agricultural products were constructed.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,the simulation and optimization simulation of traditional dominant fresh agricultural products enhancement type,characteristic brand fresh agricultural products cultivation type and emerging high-end fresh agricultural products guidance type were carried out.The results show that,strengthening the support of traditional bulk fresh agricultural products can meet the basic needs;cultivating characteristic brand products can promote purchasing power,supplying new high-end fresh agricultural products according to the demand forecast can meet the current demand,create and lead new demand;at the same time,the ultimate goals of effect supply can be achieved,including reasonable supply quantity,strong structure,customer satisfaction and profit earning by suppliers.