2018年6月中旬江西南部大暴雨诊断分析及对农业影响

Diagnostic and Impact on Agriculture of Heavy Rain in Southern Jiangxi in Mid-June 2018

采用NCEP Final Analysis(FNL)1×1的格点资料,对2018年6月中旬发生在江西南部先后出现的3次暴雨天气过程气象观测资料进行分析,并对此次大暴雨过程进行了影响系统、物理量、Doppler雷达、天气实况及Necp再分析资料等进行暴雨诊断。结果表明:6月中旬江西南部暴雨过程集中的重要原因是因为多个大气环流系统和物理量的组合性异常所致。通过雷达在暴雨预报中能体现较高的指示性和预报准确性。

Based on the meteorological observation data of three rainstorm weather processes in southern Jiangxi in mid-June 2018,NCEP final analysis(FNL)1×1 based on the grid point data of 1°,the heavy rain process is diagnosed in terms of influence system,physical quantity,Doppler radar,weather reality and NECP reanalysis data.The results show that the combined anomaly of multiple atmospheric circulation systems and physical quantities is an important reason for the concentration of rainstorm process in Southern Jiangxi in mid-June,and radar can reflect high indication and prediction accuracy in rainstorm prediction.