HP滤波下的中国苜蓿草进口数量分析

Growth analysis of quantity of imported alfalfa grass in China import quantity based on HP filtering method

【目的】为了减少苜蓿草进口数量骤减带来的供不应求风险。【方法】运用季节调整法处理中国自2008年到2021年的苜蓿草进口数量数据,采用HP滤波法得到循环序列与趋势序列并研究基本特征。【结果】研究得出:HP滤波的增长曲线平滑,分为平稳、浮动与变动增长阶段,均持续4年左右;国产苜蓿生产不足是促进苜蓿进口增长的内在因素,偏离曲线呈现2个先增后降趋势,预测未来2年内中国苜蓿进口数量将会持续增加。【结论】中国需要大力发展国产苜蓿业,增加国产优质苜蓿产量,满足国内畜牧业的需求。

[Objective]To reduce the risk of oversupply due to the sudden decrease of alfalfa grass import quantity.[Methods]The seasonal adjustment method was used to process alfalfa grass import data from 2008 to 2021,and the HP filtering method was used to obtain the cyclic series and trend series and study the basic characteristics.[Results]The growth curve of HP filter is smooth,divided into smooth,floating and variable growth stages,all lasting about 4 years;insufficient domestic alfalfa production is an intrinsic factor promoting the growth of alfalfa imports,and the deviation curve shows 2 increasing and then decreasing trends,predicting that the number of alfalfa imports in China will continue to increase in the next 2 years.[Conclusion]China needs to vigorously develop the domestic alfalfa industry and increase the production of domestic high-quality alfalfa to meet the needs of the domestic livestock industry.