星链卫星碰撞威胁及预警策略研究

Analysis of Collision Threat and Collision Detection Strategy of Starlink Constellation

针对星链卫星对其他在轨卫星的碰撞威胁问题,研究了星链星座部署规律,并利用实际轨道数据分析了不同阶段星链卫星对其他卫星的碰撞威胁情况,分析了双行根数的精度,论证了碰撞概率判据的有效性,最后提出了针对星链卫星的碰撞预警策略。结果表明:持续抬轨和降轨阶段的星链卫星轨道预报精度差,碰撞概率的置信度很低,不适合用作预警判据;而调整阶段和部署阶段星链卫星的轨道预报精度较高,碰撞概率值仍具有较高的置信度。研究可为在轨卫星的碰撞预警工作提供依据。

To analyze the collision threat between Starlink constellation and other satellites,the characteristic of constellation deployment was studied and the actual collision threat was analyzed based on the practical orbital data.So the accuracy of Two-Line-Element(TLE)was analyzed and the applicability of collision probability was tested based on the accuracy result.Finally a collision detection strategy was proposed.The result showed that the collision probability was inapplicable for starlink satellite in orbit maneuver phase,because the confidence of collision probability was re-duced.However the collision probability was still effective for starlink satellite that in adjustment phase or deployment phase,because the orbit prediction accuracy was high.The analysis results could serve as a basis for the collision detection work.