通货膨胀目标制下日本宽松货币政策及其传导“梗阻”

Japan’s Easy Monetary Policy and the"Obstruction"of Transmitting Mechanism under the Inflation Targeting

20世纪90年代以来世界范围内风靡一时的通货膨胀目标制货币政策在抑制高通货膨胀方面取得了良好效果。2008年全球金融危机后,这一政策框架摇身一变似乎成为一些国家或经济体摆脱通货紧缩、提升物价水平的政策“神器”,尤其在日本更为突出,通胀目标制不仅成为央行、政界、学术界共同关注的焦点,更成为不同时期日本银行设法规避或执着追求的对象。本文首先分析通货膨胀目标制政策发展历程,梳理通胀目标制在全球金融危机前的实践及其效果,通过对比金融危机后美国与日本通胀目标制实践,归纳其在抑制通货膨胀和提升物价水平中的作用;其次分析黑田东彦行长任内标准通胀目标制下的货币政策实践以及预期传导路径;最后基于量化质化宽松货币政策的中间目标和最终目标差异,从利率与投资、货币规模与信贷、汇率与出口以及资产价格与消费之间的关系展示了货币传导机制遭遇的“梗阻”,并揭示“梗阻”的深层次原因。

Since the 1990s,the inflation targeting system as a new monetary policy framework has produced excellent results in curbing high inflation rate,but it appeared to turn into a"sacred treasures"to out of deflation and raise the level of prices after the financial crisis of 2008 in some countries.Especially in Japan,the inflation targeting was not only become the focus of politics and academia,but also the one that Bank of Japan has deftly evaded and persistently pursued at different times.First,outlining the process of inflation targeting and summarizing it’s practices and effects before the financial crisis,and based on the comparing the inflation targeting practices in the US and Japan,summarizing its role in tackle the deflation and raise the price level after the financial crisis.Second,analyzing the quantitative and qualitative Monetary Easing and expected transmission mechanism under the standard inflation targeting during the tenure of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda of Bank of Japan.Finally,because of the difference between the intermediate objective and ultimate objective of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing,studying the"obstruction"of transmitting mechanism form the relationship of interest rate and investment flow,base currency and credit flow,exchange rate and export,and asset price and consumption,and revealing the underlying cause of those"obstructions".