日本应对“新冠萧条”的财政政策及其面临的困境

Japan’s Fiscal Policy in Response to the"COVID-19 Depression"and the Difficulties It Faces

新冠疫情的暴发蔓延使世界经济遭受严重冲击,其中日本经济增速大幅下滑,失业率上升,消费显著下降。为应对疫情冲击,日本政府迅速实施了规模空前的财政刺激计划。在低利率时代,财政政策成为主导经济政策具有合理性,但在财政支出刚性、财政收入增长缓慢的条件约束下,赤字高企、债台高筑严重制约了日本政府持续实施财政扩张行为。从中长期看,日本有必要进行财政整顿,实施财政规则及体制改革,进一步明确社会保障改革等增收减支的改革路径。中国应以此为借鉴,保持适度财政政策空间,避免债务增长过快,及早应对老龄化。

With the spread of COVID-19,the world economy has suffered a serious impact.Japan’s economic growth has dropped sharply,the unemployment rate has risen,and consumption has dropped significantly.In response to the impact of the epidemic,the Japanese government quickly implemented an unprecedented fiscal stimulus plan.In the era of low interest rates,it is reasonable for fiscal policy to become the dominant economic policy.However,under the constraints of rigid fiscal expenditure and slow growth of fiscal revenue,the Japanese government’s continued fiscal expansion is seriously constrained by high deficits and high debts.In the medium and long term,Japan needs to carry out fiscal consolidation,implement fiscal rules and system reform,and further clarify the reform path of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure,such as social security reform.As a reference,China should maintain appropriate fiscal policy space,avoid excessive debt growth,and deal with aging as soon as possible.