俄乌冲突对全球原油贸易的影响及中国对策研究

The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global crude oil trade and China’s countermeasures

俄乌冲突对全球原油贸易的影响包括西方国家制裁阻挠了俄罗斯原油出口贸易、俄乌冲突加剧了国际原油价格的高位震荡、加快改变国际原油贸易格局、全球能源转型替代进一步加快等几个方面。对于中国而言,俄乌冲突爆发以来,原油进口成本和下游企业成本增加,通胀压力上升,中俄原油贸易也好中有忧。应进一步加快推进原油进口多元化战略、努力提高国内石油保障能力、加快改善中国能源结构、提高中国原油定价话语权,不断巩固深化中俄原油贸易,更好地保障中国原油安全。

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global crude oil trade includes several aspects,such as the sanctions of western countries obstructing the export trade of Russian crude oil,the Russia-Ukraine conflict aggravating the high volatility of international crude oil prices,accelerating the change of the international crude oil trade pattern,and further accelerating the global energy transformation and substitution.For China,since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the cost of crude oil import and the cost of downstream enterprises have increased,the inflation pressure has increased,and the Sino-Russian crude oil trade has both advantages and some worries.We should further accelerate the diversification strategy of crude oil imports,strive to improve the domestic oil security capabilities,speed up the improvement of China’s energy structure,improve the discourse power of China’s crude oil pricing,continuously consolidate and deepen the Sino-Russian crude oil trade,and better ensure China’s crude oil security.