“一带一路”智库报告主题挖掘与演化研究

Topic Mining and Evolution of “Belt and Road Initiative” Report in Think Tanks

[目的/意义]作为国家“软实力”和“话语权”的重要组成部分,智库对政府决策、企业发展、社会舆论与公共知识传播等方面具有深刻影响。在对“一带一路”合作倡议的认知上,智库以及智库专家的研究成果,在对外合作、舆论导向、项目评估等方面发挥着重要作用,同时也能够反映“一带一路”合作倡议的工作重点等信息。本文通过量化研究中国智库对“一带一路”倡议研究的主题分布与演化历程,得到“一带一路”倡议在中国智库视角下的重点关注、研究方向和研究发展脉络,为“一带一路”倡议相关研究的推进提供整理与参考。[方法/过程]本文结合LDA2vec主题模型与词向量语义相似度计算方法,对于《全球智库报告2020》榜单中的中国智库,在2013—2020年间关于“一带一路”倡议研究的3,052份报告进行主题挖掘以及主题演化研究,并进行可视化呈现,分析主题内容与演化特征。[结果/结论]我国智库对“一带一路”倡议的研究热点主题逐年覆盖政治、经济、文化、社会、军事、环境等领域,且研究热点有着鲜明的基调,如“互利互信”“互联互通”“命运共同体”“共赢”等,主题演变的过程体现出明显的主题继承性、主题融合性等特征,这也体现出“一带一路”倡议逐渐全面的发展过程,也能够说明国内智库对“一带一路”倡议的研究重点具有持续性和拓展性。

[Purpose/significance]As an important part of the country’s soft power and voice,think tanks have a profound impact on government decision-making,enterprise development,public opinion and public knowledge dissemination.In terms of cognition of the “Belt and Road Initiative”,the research results of think tanks and think tank experts play an important role in foreign cooperation,public opinion guidance,project evaluation,etc.,and can also reflect the work priorities of the “Belt and Road Initiative” and other information.Through quantitative research on the theme distribution and evolution of the research on the “Belt and Road Initiative” by Chinese think tanks,this paper obtains the key attention,research direction and research development context of the “Belt and Road Initiative” from the perspective of Chinese think tanks,and provides collation and reference for the promotion of relevant research on the “Belt and Road Initiative”.[Method/process]Using the LDA2vec theme method and calculation method of semantic similarity of word vector,we conduct theme mining and theme evolution research on 3,025 reports of Chinese think tanks listed in the Global Think Tank Report 2020 from 2013 to 2020 on the Belt and Road,and carry out visual presentation to analyze the theme content and evolution characteristics.[Result/conclusion]The hot research topics on the “Belt and Road Initiative” by Chinese high-end think tanks cover political,economic,cultural,social,military,environmental and other fields year by year,and the research hot pots have a distinctive tone,such as “mutual benefit and mutual trust” “connectivity” “community of destiny” “win-win” and so on.The evolution of the Belt and Road Initiative’s theme reflects the characteristics of obvious theme inheritance and theme integration.This also reflects the gradual and comprehensive development process,and also shows that the research focus of domestic think tanks on the Belt and Road Initiative is sustainable and expanding.