不确定性、出口市场多元化与企业的生产率进步

Uncertainty,Export Market Diversification and Productivity Improvement

在中美经贸摩擦不断加剧和新冠疫情全球蔓延的背景下,多元化市场战略对于企业生存以及中国对外贸易健康发展的重要意义日益凸显。本文创新性地将企业的需求学习过程和生产率演变纳入同一分析框架,构筑了企业出口市场多元化的动态离散选择模型,并量化评估了“不确定性”背景下“多元化”和生产率对企业出口的作用。结果表明,企业在生产率和需求学习方面均具有显著的异质性,而“多元化策略”所引致的需求学习是促进企业出口决策的主要驱动力;当企业出口到更多国家时,能够积累更多的需求学习经验,并更新其需求信念,这将进一步促使企业进行出口市场的多元化选择。此外,反事实模拟证实:无论对潜在进入者还是有经验的企业而言,需求学习过程对企业的出口参与决策的促进作用均高于生产率演变过程;当贸易成本降低时,需求学习过程的间接效应随着时间的推移而减弱,但其长短期效果均高于生产率演变过程的直接效应;初始信念期望和不确定性与企业的出口参与率存在正相关关系。

In the context of the continuous escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic,the diversified market strategy has become increasingly important for the survival of enterprises and the healthy development of China's foreign trade.This article innovatively incorporates the needs learning process and productivity evolution of enterprises into the same analysis framework,constructs a dynamic discrete choice model for the diversification of the export market of enterprises,and quantitatively evaluates the effects of diversification and productivity on enterprises in the context of"uncertainty".The role of exports.The results show that enterprises have significant heterogeneity in both productivity and demand learning,and demand learning is the main driving force for companies to make export decisions;when companies export to more countries,they can accumulate more demand learning Experience,and update its demand beliefs,which will further encourage enterprises to diversify their export market choices.In addition,counterfactual simulations confirmed that:①For both potential entrants and experienced enterprises,the demand learning process has a greater role in promoting enterprises'export participation decision-making than the productivity evolution process;②When trade costs are reduced The indirect effects of the demand learning process weaken over time,but its short-and long-term effects are higher than the direct effects of the pro-ductivity evolution process;③Initial belief expectations and uncertainty are positively related to the export participation rate of enterprises.